Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development

The text provides literature surveys on relevant modeling issues and policy concerns. It demonstrates the application of a modeling system using a "base case" 50-year projection and a small set of scenarios. These illustrate, for example, the effects of changes in public harvest policies, variations in investments in silviculture, and globalization. It is aimed at policy makers, researchers and graduate students who are building or using forest sector models.

Long-range models that include product and resource detail are essential to meaningful analysis of both industry and resource sustainability. Taking this as it's central argument, this book provides essential reading to anyone interested in projecting the future of either the forest products market and/or the forest resource conditions. It is aimed at policy makers, model builders, researchers and graduate students who are building or using forest sector models, as well as at forest industry managers and analysts. While focusing on a specific modeling system - the US Timber Assessment models - the authors highlight the general elements that might comprise a forest-sector market model of any country or region. Approaches to policy analysis are also general and equally applicable to both national and multi-national forest policy development outside the US - particularly in relation to on-going efforts to formulate national programs of sustainable forestry. The text provides literature surveys on relevant modeling issues and policy concerns, and demonstrates the application of the modeling system using a "base case" 50 year projection and a small set of scenarios to illustrate, for example, the effects of changes in public harvest policies, global change, variations in investments in silviculture, and globalization. Darius Adams and Richard Haynes are widely recognized as leading experts in the forest sector modeling field.

Section 1: Timber Assessments in Supporting the Development of National Forestry Programs and Policy. 1. The challenge of developing models to support forest sector policy analysis. 1.1 Introduction. 1.2 Shaping the Assessment System. 1.2.1 Past studies, methods, and policy intent. 1.2.2 Requirements of the RPA legislation. 1.2.3 Characteristics of the U.S. forest sector. 1.2.4 Changing management paradigms on public and private lands. 1.3 General model attributes; RW Haynes, DM Adams.- 2. Methodological considerations in developing the Timber Assessment Projection System. 2.1 Introduction. 2.2 Approaches to forest policy planning and analysis. 2.3 Overview of the Assessment System. 2.3.1 RPA legislation, past analytical traditions and model structure. 2.3.2 Outline of the Assessment System. 2.4 Some general considerations in forest sector model development. 2.4.1 Static or dynamic models. 2.4.2 Number of market levels. 2.4.3 Resource detail. 2.4.4 Form and extent of spatial detail. 2.4.5 Exogenous or endogenous land base. 2.4.6 Exogenous or endogenous management investment; DM Adams, RW Haynes.- Section 2: Model Components. 3. Solid wooda¿'Timber Assessment Market model. 3.1 Introduction. 3.2. General TAMM structure. 3.3 Models of solid wood market components. 3.3.1 Demand for softwood lumber, softwood plywood, and OSB. 3.3.2 Demand for hardwood lumber. 3.3.3 Product supply relations and capacity adjustment. 3.3.4 Demand for logs and stumpage. 3.3.5 Sawtimber stumpage supply. 3.3.6 Nonstructural panels. 3.3.7 Transport costs. 3.4 Model solution. 3.4.1 Market equilibrium. 4.2 Links to other model elements. 3.5 Review of approaches to modeling the solid wood sector. 3.5.1 Short-term models versus long-term models. 3.5.2 Specification of demand. 3.5.3 Supply-side specification, log demand, and capital stock. 3.5.4 Spatial structure and trade. 3.5.5 Sawtimber supply; DM Adams.- 4. North American Pulp and Paper model (NAPAP). 4.1 Introduction. 4.1.1 Historical context. 4.2 NAPAP model-origins and objectives. 4.2.1 Background. 4.2.2 Specifications. 4.2.3 FPL pulpwood model. 4.2.4 NAPAP model. 4.3 Other models and related literature. 4.3.1 Contemporaneous forest sector models. 4.3.2 Spatial equilibrium modeling. 4.3.3 Price-endogenous linear programming. 4.3.4 Techno-spatial equilibrium modeling. 4.4 Mathematical structure of NAPAP model. 4.4.1 Objective function. 4.4.2 Demand. 4.4.3 Supply. 4.4.4 Material balance constraints and prices. 4.4.5 Manufacturing capacity constraints. 4.4.6 Net manufacturing costs and input-output coefficients. 4.4.7 Recursive relationships. 4.4.8 Selected outputs. 4.4.9 Conclusions; PJ Ince ,J Buongiorno.- 5. Methods for projecting areas of private timberland and forest cover types. 5.1 Introduction. 5.2 History and scope of large-scale forest area change projections. 5.3 Structure of land-use and land-cover modeling. 5.4 Land-use modeling. 5.4.1 Land-use theory. 5.4.2 Land-use model estimation. 5.4.3 Examples of regional models. 5.5 Projecting land-use changes. 5.5.1 Projections of exogenous variables. 5.5.2 Projection methods for land uses. 5.6 Land-cover modeling. 5.6.1 Type transition theory. 5.6.2 Type transition model estimation. 5.7 Model validation. 5.8 Summary. Appendix 5: Land-use data; R Alig, A Plantinga.- 6. Timber inventory and managementa¿'ATLAS. 6.1 Introduction. 6.2 ATLAS structure and linkage to other Assessment System elements. 6.2.1 Inventory strata and inventory data. 6.2.2 Growing stock removals and harvest requests. 6.2.3 Timberland area and forest type change. 6.2.4 Management intensity. 6.2.5 Modeling forest growth. 6.2.6 Modeling yields under different harvesting methods/silvicultural regimes. 6.3 Management investment. 6.4 Other approaches to inventory projection; JR Mills, DM Adams.- 7. Exogenous assumptions-framing the base case and scenarios. 7.1 Introduction. 7.2 Exogenous variables in the Assessment System. 7.2.1 Macroeconomic activity. 7.2.2 International ...